Typhoon Sarika 2016 Forecast History Log


ShekouDaily   |   October 19, 2016

The following page contains a history of the forecast, predictions and warnings we shared during Typhoon Sarika. For information on Super Typhoon Haima, click here.

The HKO cancelled all signals at 10:10pm October 18th. Occasional strong winds are still expected overnight. Members of the public should stay on the alert. Since seas are rough and there are swells, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

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At 8PM. the HKO cancelled the rainstorm warning and the following forecast was issued for tonight and tomorrow: Fresh to strong east to southeasterly winds, occasionally gale force offshore at first. Cloudy with squally showers. Showers will ease off and winds will weaken gradually tomorrow. Temperatures will range between 24 and 27 degrees. There will be rough seas and swells. Outlook: Sunny periods on Thursday. There will be heavy squally showers and swells on Friday and Saturday.

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At 3:25pm October 18, the HKO issued an Amber Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Amber. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 30 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue. There will be flooding in some low-lying and poorly drained areas. People who are likely to be affected should take necessary precautions to reduce their exposure to risk posed by the heavy rain and flooding. Heavy rain may bring about flash floods. People should stay away from watercourses. People who are likely to be affected by flooding should take necessary precautions to avoid losses.

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Watch the HKO’s Central Briefing by Mok Hing Yim, Senior Scientific Officer. Broadcasted at 12:00 noon today.

HKO current HAIMA forecast at 3pm October 18th: “The movement will be west-northwest at around 25 km per hour in the next 24 hours. Haima will move towards the northern part of Luzon today and tomorrow. It is expected to enter the northern part of South China Sea on Thursday and edge close to the coast of Guangdong on Friday.” Forecasted maximum sustained winds is 220 km/h for tomorrow coming down to 140 km/h by Friday.

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At 7:45am October 18, the HKO issued the following statement: Sarika is tracking towards Hainan and will make landfall around noon today. Its direct threat to Hong Kong will decrease gradually. Under the combined effect of Sarika and the northeast monsoon, strong winds are expected to persist over offshore waters for most of the time today. The Observatory will consider issuing the Strong Monsoon Signal to replace the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 later today.

Here is a summary of the Strong Monsoon Signal:

The Strong Monsoon Signal is issued when winds associated with the summer or winter monsoon are blowing in excess of or are expected to exceed 40 kilometres per hour near sea level anywhere in Hong Kong. In very exposed places, monsoon winds may exceed 70 kilometres per hour. Winds associated with the monsoons are generally more persistent than those brought by tropical cyclones and may last for days. If you are not well sheltered from the monsoon, precautions should be taken against strong gusty winds. Flower pots and other objects likely to be blown away should be taken indoors. Engineers, architects and contractors should ensure that all scaffoldings, hoardings and temporary structures are secured. If necessary, owners of small craft should make arrangements for the safety of their boats and make sure that all deck fittings are firmly fastened. Those engaging in water sports or operations at sea should take special care against high winds and rough sea conditions. Rough seas and swells may affect the coast. You should beware of the risk and stay away from the shoreline for safety sake. Drivers using highways and flyovers should be particularly alert to strong gusts.

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At 3 AM October 18th, Weather Underground published an updated 5-Day Forecast showing Haima making landfall on Friday near Hong Kong. Much closer than their forecast just 12 hours earlier (see preceding map).

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At 3 PM October 17th, Weather Underground published their 5-Day Forecast showing Haima making landfall early afternoon Friday well east of Hong Kong.

Weather forecast for tonight and tomorrow updated at 5:45pm Oct 17 by the HKO:

 

Fresh to strong easterly winds. Cloudy to overcast with rain and squalls. Rain will be heavy tomorrow. Temperatures will range between 23 and 26 degrees. There will be rough seas and swells. Outlook: Rain will ease off gradually in the following couple of days. There will showers and squalls again towards weekend.

 

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 3 Signal)

 

1. You are advised not to delay in taking all precautions to protect your home or property. Make sure now that all loose objects are secure. Porch furniture, flower pots and other objects likely to be blown away should be taken indoors. Check again and make sure all windows and doors can be securely locked. 

2. Storm water drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish, this applies particularly to dwellers in low-lying areas.

3. Engineers, architects and contractors are again reminded that all scaffoldings, hoardings and temporary buildings should be secured.

4. Small craft owners should now complete arrangements for the safety of their boats.

5. Fishing vessels not yet in typhoon shelters should seek shelter without delay. Check again that all deck fittings are firmly fastened. If available, heavy anchors should be prepared and used in addition to regular anchors.

6. Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory’s web site for information on the tropical cyclone.

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Oct 17, 4:45pm, the HKO issued the following announcement: Under the combined effect of the northeast monsoon and Sarika, local winds had strengthened this afternoon. According to the present forecast track, Sarika will maintain a distance of about 500 kilometres or more from Hong Kong. The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is expected to remain in force overnight. Since seas are rough and there are swells, members of the public are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports. In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Ngong Ping and Waglan Island were 64 and 62 kilometres per hour respectively.

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Watch the HKO’s Central Briefing by Song Man Kuen, Senior Scientific Officer. Broadcasted at 12:00 noon today.

Today at 1:40pm, the HKO issued The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 with the following precautionary accouncement: This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62 kilometres per hour are expected. At 2 p.m., Typhoon Sarika was estimated to be about 540 kilometres south of Hong Kong (near 17.5 degrees north 113.4 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 20 kilometres per hour across the central part of the South China Sea and intensify gradually. Under the combined effect of the northeast monsoon and Sarika, local winds will generally strengthen progressively today. According to the present forecast track, the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 will remain in force today. Squally showers started to affect the coast of Guangdong and there will also be swells. Members of the public are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

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11:45am. The HKO issued the following:

In the past few hours, winds over offshore waters have strengthened. Under the combined effect of the northeast monsoon and Sarika, local winds generally will strengthen progressively today. The Observatory will issue the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 between noon and 2:00 p.m. The outer rainbands of Sarika are expected to move close to and affect the coast of Guangdong this afternoon, squally showers will start to affect Hong Kong and there will also be swells. Members of the public are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

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10:45am. HKO issued this outlook for tomorrow: “Heavy rain and squalls tomorrow. Rain will ease off gradually in the following couple of days.”

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9:00am JST Oct 17. Japan Meteorological Agency posted that it expects a 70% chance of Super Typhoon Haima hitting Shenzhen. The dotted-circles in the image below represent the center position with a 70% probability.

At 9:45am the following statement was issued by the Hong Kong Observatory:

According to the present forecast track, local winds generally will strengthen progressively today.

The Observatory will issue the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 between noon and 2:00 p.m.

The outer rainbands of Sarika are expected to move close to and affect the coast of Guangdong this afternoon, squally showers will start to affect Hong Kong and there will also be swells. Members of the public are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

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Tropical Cyclone Sarika is currently heading towards Hainan and is affecting Shekou with heavy winds. The more worrying storm though is Super Typhoon Haima; which, according to the Hong Kong Observatory, is expected to hit the area this coming Friday October 21st with maximum sustained winds as high as 205 km/h.

 

A T1 Warning is currently in effect. At 4:45 this morning, the following statement was issued:

“According to the present forecast track, local winds will strengthen gradually later in the day. The Observatory will consider issuing the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 around noon to afternoon.”

The following precautionary accouncement has been issued with the No. 1 Signal:

1. Some precautions against damage should be taken now, gutters and drains should be cleared of obstructions. Hinges, bolts, locks and shutters of windows and doors should be checked.

2. Those who have definite duties during a tropical cyclone should now remain on call or contact their control centres from time to time.

3. If you are planning to visit Guangdong, Macau, any of the off-shore islands or remote parts of Hong Kong, you are reminded that changes in weather may affect your plans.

4. Since there will be swells, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

5. All small vessels including low power vessels and fishing vessels in open sea should seek shelter as soon as possible. Please take any precautions necessary for small vessels and secure them properly with moorings.

6. Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory’s web site for information on the tropical cyclone.