Dear Members,

Our research for the 2020 White Paper on the Business Environment in China and analysis of data for our 2020 Special Report on the State of Business in South China showed signs of the world’s supply chain being overstretched. American companies as well as most companies on the planet depend on this supply chain for various reasons. Many goods assembled in China or the US depend on raw material from and parts manufactured in many different countries in the world. As it is also presented in our White Paper, it will take 2-3 trillion US dollars to replace the current supply chain. A cost which the world, in the face of today’s problems it cannot afford. Therefore, it is of paramount importance that, as we deal with the immediate problems already caused and to be caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, the two major economies of this supply chain must sit down to establish the stabilizer we have suggested in the above referenced two studies.

The above assessment is reinforced by the results of this Special Report on the Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on the Supply Chain. This study sounds not just a loud alarm but rather blurs out a siren not unlike the ones used during the cold war. This should be a wakeup call for every business and government leader around the globe and not just for those producing goods and services in China. Considering the fact that factories in China only returned to work less than two weeks ago, 32% of companies surveyed are already experiencing difficulties and are already out of, or expect to be out of, needed components, supplies and/or material. I believe this to be a tip of the iceberg.

While much of the disruption was due to the logistics industry in China not having reached previous operational levels, many of the companies reported a great deal of their needed items regularly being shipped from Japan, South Korea, Italy and the US – countries which are now under pressure from the outbreak and who have limited travel and transportation. One must keep in mind that a great deal of goods are air shipped via commercial flights and the cancellation of thousands of flights will with no doubt lead to shortage of transportation capacity, higher shipping prices and even further delays in shipments between various nations.

As I have suggested in my message in the White Paper, we remain hopeful and determined that the US and China accelerate negotiations for a Phase Two trade agreement.

Please stay safe.

Dr. Harley Seyedin

President, American Chamber of Commerce in South China

Winner of the 2017 Oslo Business for Peace Award (together with Elon Musk)

Awarded by the Award Committee of Nobel Laureates in Peace and Economics

Visiting Scholar, Jinan University

President, Allelon Energy Partners

尊敬的会员:

我们对《2020年中国营商环境白皮书》的研究和对《2020年华南地区经济情况特别报告》数据的分析表明,世界供应链已经捉襟见肘。出于各种因素,美国企业以及世界上的大多数企业都依赖于这一供应链。许多在中国或美国组装的货物依赖于来自世界上许多不同国家的原材料和零部件。正如我们的《白皮书》中提及的那样,需要投入2-3万亿美元才能取代目前的供应链。面对目前窘况,这是世界所无法承受的代价。因此,至关重要的是,在我们处理COVID-19爆发已经造成和可能造成的直接问题时,正如我们在上述两项研究报告中建议的,这一供应链中的两个主要经济体必须协商共同充当稳定器的角色。

这份《关于COVID-19疫情对供应链影响的特别报告》的结果强化了上述评估。这份报告不仅是拉响了警笛,究其紧迫性,无异于冷战期间的警报。不仅仅针对那些在中国生产商品和提供服务的企业,甚至为全球每一个企业和政府领导人敲响了警钟。考虑到中国的工厂只是在不到两周前才复工,32%的受访公司已经遇到困难,并且已经或即将面临所需的部件、供应和/或材料不足的问题。我相信这是冰山一角。

虽然中断的大部分原因是由于中国的物流业尚未恢复之前的运营水平,但许多公司谈到所需的大量物资定期从日本、韩国、意大利和美国发出,这些国家目前正受到疫情影响,差旅和运输受到限制。大家必须留意大量货物是通过商业航班空运的,数千航班的取消无疑将导致运输能力短缺、航运价格上涨,以致各国之间的货运进一步延误。

正如我在《白皮书》中所说的那样,我们希望并坚信美国和中国会加速第二阶段贸易协议的谈判。

祝好!

哈利•赛亚丁博士

华南美国商会会长

2017奥斯陆商业促和平奖获奖者(同期获奖者包括埃隆·马斯克)

由诺贝尔和平奖及经济奖评审委员会授予

暨南大学访问学者

阿来龙能源总裁

Key Take Aways

关 键 要 点

To determine the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on supply chain, the American Chamber of Commerce in South China conducted a study of 237 random companies from March 9 to14, 2020. As in the past, American companies make up just over half while EU, Mainland China and other APEC countries represent the remaining participants. Multinational companies make up nearly half of the companies in the study and manufacturers represent 76% of the total.

为了确定新型冠状病毒COVID-19疫情爆发对供应链的影响,华南美国商会于2020年3月9日至14日对237家随机会员企业进行了研究。和过去一样,美国企业占比稍高于一半,而其他来源国包括欧盟、中国大陆和其他亚太经合组织国家。跨国公司占本次研究公司的近一半,制造产业企业占总数的76%。

◎ Nearly one third of the companies in the study are facing components, supplies or material shortages, with 15% of them reporting to have already run out of components, supplies or material.

◎ 近三分之一的受访企业面临零部件、物资或材料短缺的问题,其中15%的企业已经缺乏零部件、物资或材料。

◎ 80% of the companies believe the problems will last between one to three months.

◎ 80%的企业认为供应短缺问题将持续一到三个月。

◎ 100% of respondents are experiencing some impact on their operation due to disruptions in the supply chain.

◎ 由于供应链中断,100%受访企业的经营受到一定程度影响。

Postpone

◎ Some Multinationals have had to postpone their product release affecting tens of thousands of employees globally.

◎ 一些跨国公司不得不延迟产品发布,全球范围内数万名员工受到影响。

◎ With 18% of the shortage of components, supplies or material being attributed to US, EU, and APEC countries (other than mainland China), the job losses in those countries as a result of disruption in the supply chain will be substantial.

◎ 本次研究中,18%的零部件、物资或材料的短缺来自美国、欧盟和亚太经合组织国家(中国大陆除外),这些国家因供应链中断而造成的就业损失将是巨大的。

Download the report here: Special Report on the Impact of COVID-19 on Supply China